Solar Payback Period by State (2026)

The federal residential solar tax credit (Section 25D) expired on December 31, 2025. That added 2–3 years to payback in most states. This ranking shows estimated payback for a typical 6 kW system at $3.00/W with 70% self-consumption, using each state's real electricity rate (EIA, 2026) and solar production (NREL PVWatts v8), plus SREC income where it exists.

How to read this: Green = pays back in ≤9 years (excellent), Yellow = 9–13 years (reasonable), Red = 13+ years (long — only consider with strong state incentives or long-term ownership). Estimates only — run the ROI calculator for your exact numbers.
RankStateRate (¢/kWh)Production (kWh/kW)Net MeteringSRECEst. PaybackVerdict
#1New Jersey23.31306Full retail$85/MWh~0.6 yrGOOD
#2Illinois19.11290Full retail$75/MWh~0.7 yrGOOD
#3Maryland21.21290Full retail$65/MWh~0.7 yrGOOD
#4District of Columbia24.61300Full retail$40/MWh~0.7 yrGOOD
#5Massachusetts30.11302Full retail$30/MWh~0.6 yrGOOD
#6Delaware17.41330Full retail$30/MWh~0.9 yrGOOD
#7Pennsylvania20.81344Full retail$25/MWh~0.8 yrGOOD
#8Ohio18.41210Full retail$8/MWh~1.1 yrGOOD
#9Maine29.71319Full retail—~0.7 yrGOOD
#10Rhode Island29.51294Full retail—~0.7 yrGOOD
#11Connecticut29.81252Full retail—~0.7 yrGOOD
#12New York29.21214Full retail—~0.7 yrGOOD
#13New Hampshire26.81259Full retail—~0.8 yrGOOD
#14Vermont23.91222Full retail—~0.9 yrGOOD
#15Colorado16.51500Full retail—~1.0 yrGOOD
#16Alaska26.7922Full retail—~1.0 yrGOOD
#17New Mexico14.81650Full retail—~1.0 yrGOOD
#18Florida15.41520Full retail—~1.1 yrGOOD
#19Wisconsin18.91240Full retail—~1.1 yrGOOD
#20Virginia16.61370Full retail—~1.1 yrGOOD
#21Kansas15.11430Full retail—~1.2 yrGOOD
#22Georgia14.91430Full retail—~1.2 yrGOOD
#23North Carolina14.91400Full retail—~1.2 yrGOOD
#24Minnesota15.71290Full retail—~1.3 yrGOOD
#25Hawaii44.61650Net billing—~1.3 yrGOOD
#26Oklahoma13.11450Full retail—~1.3 yrGOOD
#27West Virginia15.41220Full retail—~1.4 yrGOOD
#28South Dakota14.21310Full retail—~1.4 yrGOOD
#29Oregon15.11200Full retail—~1.4 yrGOOD
#30Arkansas13.31350Full retail—~1.4 yrGOOD
#31Montana13.61300Full retail—~1.4 yrGOOD
#32Iowa13.31280Full retail—~1.5 yrGOOD
#33Nebraska12.61320Full retail—~1.5 yrGOOD
#34Missouri12.81290Full retail—~1.5 yrGOOD
#35Washington14.31088Full retail—~1.6 yrGOOD
#36North Dakota11.91300Full retail—~1.6 yrGOOD
#37Utah13.11500Net billing—~1.7 yrGOOD
#38Nevada14.01650Net billing—~1.7 yrGOOD
#39Michigan20.71180Net billing—~1.8 yrGOOD
#40Arizona15.61755Net billing—~2.1 yrGOOD
#41Indiana17.01220Net billing—~2.3 yrGOOD
#42South Carolina16.21400Net billing—~2.8 yrGOOD
#43Texas16.11421Mixed—~3.0 yrGOOD
#44California32.81560Net billing—~3.3 yrGOOD
#45Mississippi15.51400Mixed—~3.6 yrGOOD
#46Louisiana13.51400Mixed—~3.6 yrGOOD
#47Wyoming13.71400Mixed—~3.6 yrGOOD
#48Alabama16.61450Avoided cost—~4.4 yrGOOD
#49Tennessee13.91350Avoided cost—~4.7 yrGOOD
#50Kentucky14.41300Avoided cost—~4.9 yrGOOD
#51Idaho12.51280Avoided cost—~5.0 yrGOOD

Key Takeaways

Methodology: 6 kW system, $3.00/W gross, ~15% average state-incentive offset on cost, 70% self-consumption, 3%/yr rate escalation, 0.5%/yr degradation. Rates: EIA Electric Power Monthly Table 5.6.B (2026 YTD May). Production: NREL PVWatts v8 (representative city per state). SREC: 2026 market prices. Sources dated — verify before deciding.